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  • dilber
    07-16 03:37 AM
    Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4285&page=107

    Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed

    ----------------------------------

    Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
    (Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
    Quote:
    Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
    Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!

    As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.


    I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.

    I disagree with the underlined part before the visa numbers started to move fast in June and The July bulletin EB2 was at Jan 03 and then at Apr 04 but EB3 was at May 01 and then at June 2003 so there will me more like 60~65 percent of Eb3 filers so for calculating EB2 movements we should take this into account as well. So if USCIS does end up giving all the spillover numbers to the retro cuntries in EB2 then I have to agree with Vdlrao's analysis that there will not be much retro in India in the next FY and by the end of next FY it might even become close to current.





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  • gonecrazyonh4
    03-16 12:13 PM
    Many of us are not aware of the extend of labor subtituion and the impact that it has on the visa numbers .

    I personally know a case where 1-140 was filed in 2005, for a Labor which was approved as early as 2000.

    The person was able to get his green card in 6 months time (he has been in US only for 1 year, came to work with the Indian company and joined this new firm just to get his substitute LC) and ate away 2 visa numbers which a genuine GC applicant should have got.

    When there are applicants who are waiting for more than 5-7 years to get their green card and in some cases just to get through the labor certification process , isnt this grossly unfair?

    Advocates support LC substituion as it is just one more avenue for them to make more money. Unscrupulous employers support the LC substituion since it helps them to make money ( as I understand many of these companies sell LC) . Also same LC is used multiple times.

    The losers are genuine GC applicants who are ethical and companies which are ethical.

    As a H4 visa holder my life in this country has been so very limited that even opening a bank account or getting a driving licence is tedious as most people have no clue about H4 Visa-its limitations including absence of SSN and donot acknowledge ITIN number for many of the above purposes.

    We who are hindered by retrogression and the slow processing (actually no processing at all ) happening in the backlog centers should welcome this new legislation for Banning LC substituion.





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  • Jerrome
    09-24 05:40 PM
    Scenario 1:

    Assumptions on Visa Usage by EB1 + EB2 ROW

    1) About the Volume of EB1+ ROW for this year
    (Pending + 2010) Total GC Spill over
    EB1 ALL 4050 + 4050 8100 21995
    EB2 ROW 7871 + 7871 15742 10492 (Total of 32487)

    2) This data is as of August 25 2009, So in the months of September and October approval for India and China assume overall 3000+2000 = 5000

    3) I have not considered EB4+EB5 spill over because that would be a bonus and would result in 2-3 months variation.

    4) Spill over is 50% between China and India
    China would get (16223 spill over + 2387 regular), so china would become current
    India would get (16223 spilover+2387 regular), so India would move to March 06
    5) Let us say 3000 are un-approvable so they will move to June 06
    Scenario 2:
    If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 50% of pending then it would result of additional 6000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to December 2006.


    Scenario 3:

    If the volume of EB1+ROW for this year is 25% of pending then it would result of additional 9000 visas, India would move additional 6 months to May 2007.

    I don�t think in any case they won�t move beyond May 2007 for EB2 India as they would not want to add more cases to the Backlog.


    In my gut feel I think Scenario 1 has 60% possibility, 2 has 30% possibility and 3 has 10% possibility/





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  • alisa
    06-27 09:58 PM
    Ever since the dates got current, it has been more stressful than the time when dates were retrogressed and almost makes me miss the retrogression days when I didnt have to depend on the lawyers for my career.

    I agree. Its just one headache after another.

    But why July 2nd?
    If they really want to, they can 'U' the entire July.

    There is a saying in Urdu. Translated it says that its the prerogative of the lion to lay eggs, or bear cubs, since he is the King of the Jungle.

    USCIS is the king of the jungle here.

    But if they do this, this will be cruelest joke on thousands of people.



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  • nixstor
    08-03 03:45 PM
    While I accept that it is unfair, How many of the people will not take a labor substitution if they feel that the company is good and kept their books nice. Retropain, You, me and some xyz might stick to FIFO and wait in line but not every one does. I am sure 99% of the people who vote on your poll will say its unfair and must be removed. Do you still need one? I feel that substitution will be gone soon.





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  • eb3_nepa
    10-23 01:19 PM
    Best of luck!

    Guys I am NOTTT looking to subsitute my labor or anything of the sort. I just want to read through the docs to see what exactly is labor substitution all about. I mean i have read a WHOLE lot about it especially ON here and was wondering how EXACTLY this whole process works.

    If anyone knows any website that explains how LC substitution works please post a link on here.



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  • bitu72
    09-29 10:24 AM
    Does any body have information if we need H1 to be valid for 1 year before applying for PR. Mine is expiring in april 06, can i apply now. will they reject it and i have to resend when i get my extension...please responds...

    this just a fallback scenario i need to prepare.. also can people work on TN visa without a sponsor..





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  • kondur_007
    07-29 02:48 PM
    Well, I think the scenario is different. It is somewhere inbetween those two thought processes:

    1. They are counting on CP case; but not much. If you look in the past stats about EB cases processed via CP, it is usually a very small number (and this would just make sense: if you are doing EB green card, you will be working in US and will do AOS). CP cases can not be more than several hundreds.

    2. The major hopes DOS has is on USCIS to process large number of cases. And they ARE capable of doing so; but only RANDOMLY (not in the order of PD or FIFO or anything like that). It is very unlikely that DOS will let USCIS waste any visa numbers. Because it is DOS's responsibility, not USCIS's. And that was main reasoning behind July Fiasco; where DOS wanted to prove that it is not DOS but USCIS who is responsible for the wastage (remember, there were some 60000 visa numbers unused at that time). This time, they are playing the game of "cooperation". DOS will advance dates only till USCIS can handle (not everything Current); and in exchange USCIS will use up all the numbers.

    If USCIS can not show that they have used up at least 75% (or something in that range) of the remaining visa numbers (which are probably in the range predicted in this thread giver or take few thousands) by mid august, DOS will further advance dates in sept. If USCIS shows that they used up most of the numbers, dates may go back. It would not matter what the dates are in sept as the end result is the same: all the remaining visa numbers will be used (probably randomly) to people with PDs upto mid 2006.

    I do not buy the "CP using numbers" theory from Ron or Murthy. It is all about allowing USCIS to use the numbers randomly and let them pick the "low hanging fruits" (as they usually like).

    For the next fiscal year, they will move dates back to mid 2004 (just a wild guess), but I dont think it matters any way...(till the end of the fiscal year). USCIS will probably go in hibernation again till the last quarter of next year and the date will advance again dramatically (may be upto 2008) to let them use all the left over/spilled numbers.



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  • intheyan
    10-19 02:35 PM
    Hi,
    Thanks a lot for reading this Question. Thanks in advance for your valuable suggestion. My friend initially came on H1 visa. Her Husband is the primary applicant for Green Card and she was working on H1 visa without break. Now she is on EAD and joined a job in EAD got 2 months pay stubs( ie 8 weekly pay stubs). After that got 3 months break. Her status now is on I-485 and no more on H1. Note: Her husband was the primary applicant and she applied I-485 through her husband's GC.

    Her husband got the GC card and she is waiting for her's. While her husband received the GC she was working on her EAD.
    Now the question is Will the break in her work on EAD be a problem for getting her GC?.





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  • WeldonSprings
    09-24 12:10 AM
    Hi, And just for my own and others who have a Priority date earlier than March 2006; can you tell us after looking at the today's data; when will we be current?

    Thanks.

    By Septemebre 2010, EB3-india wll be in the mid of 2002.



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  • chintu25
    02-13 11:23 AM
    Ok - so what is it going to cost us to get a consult with Rajiv Khanna? Anyone know this? Until we have more details on this, I commit $25 for this first consultation. (I will gladly raise the commitment once I know how much this will cost and if IV Core Members support this initiative).

    We have three now and atleast 8 who supported this issue on the thread





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  • snthampi
    07-31 12:01 AM
    Thanks Thampi, people let us post some more avoidance techniques to be used subtle or not, this is a scourge we need to get rid of.
    Keep going man. We are all adults and just trying to be funny. No one needs get upset over this. It is ok if the Amway/Quickstar guys get upset, because they upset us once in a while.



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  • unitednations
    02-18 08:29 PM
    start from the bottom as that was the first e-mail. I took off identifying information and financial info. for obvious purposes:

    -------------------------------

    Dear xxxx

    Thank you very much for your quick reply. I talked to the family and advised them that the best way to proceed is you the doing the ability to pay part. They are talking to some people to get the money together. I will call them back after 4PM. Can we pay by debit card, or check or money order? Time is of the essence because of the B2 expiration on 2/11/07. I have the labor certification, (the one I printed off the website, we did not get the signed one from them yet, but it is the same). I have the 2005 tax return. I need to get the bank statements. Can I fax those to you? I also have something like a financial statement for 2006. If the numbers don't add up, you can still help us?

    Thank you so much for helping us. I know you are very busy.


    xxxx

    xxxxwrote:
    Most CPA�s don�t do audited financial statements. Reason is that there is a lot of things from a regulatory point of view that CPA�s have to keep up with in order to do audits. For this reason, most cpa�s won�t do them.

    An audit is a big thing; it is not a small thing. I wouldn�t consider this as an option for you.

    If you want me to do the ability to pay part then it will cost $xxxx.

    I will need: Copy of labor certification, 2005 federal tax returns of company. Bank statements of company for October, November and December 2006. If the numbers aren�t the way they need to be then there are still remedies.

    xxxx


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    From: xxx
    Sent: Sunday, January 07, 2007 12:34 PM
    To: xxx
    Subject: RE:

    Dear xxxxx

    First of all, thank you very much for your help. It is really appreciated. I have been researching this subject and was not able to find anything valuable until I found your name. It is really great that you are helping these people.
    I know your time is very valuable but I forgot to ask you whether or not we have to get the 2006 December bank statement certified or just send the original? If the CPA is not able to do audited financial statement for 2006 (which I doubt) are you available to do it? If we do that do we still need to send 2005 tax return? (Labor was filed on 12/26/06 and certified on 1/4/2007. )
    You are the only one who can help us with this questions. I know you are extremely busy, but I am really trying to do this right for this family. They gave up everything in Hungary, (they made like $400.00 per month and life is more expensive than here), so it would be great hardship for them to go back. As I said they don't even have an attorney here. I don't know if that matters because most of them don't know half of what you guys know.
    Anyways please, let me know how to proceed.

    Thank you very much

    xxxxx



    You have to prove ability to pay from the date that labor was filed with state department of labor. Therefore, if you sent the labor in 2001 then you have to prove ability to pay for 2001 through 2006.

    Audited financial statements are very expensive and probably do not suit your needs (At least $5,000 per year). Every year has to show ability to pay not just current year.

    I can do it but it is pretty expensive. It will range from $xxxxx. You can give me a call with the details and I�ll let you know the chances of success.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    From: xxxxxx
    Sent: Saturday, January 06, 2007 7:26 PM
    To: ny.united@gmail.com
    Subject:

    Hi,

    I heard about you on one of the immigration portals. I am the employer and ready to file I-140 for alien worker. He and his wife are here on B2 visas.
    We are concerned about the ability to pay issue. I heard that you are the best on this.
    The instructions are not clear at all. Do you have to send 3 years of tax returns. 2006 is not done yet, can we send audited financial statements? What is an audited financial statement exactly? What if the company did not have enough net income in 2005 and 2004 but has it in 2006. Can you please help us? As the employer we are willing to help the worker to get the I-140 approved.

    Can you help us? Please, let me know and also how much do you charge.

    Their visa expiring soon, please respond A.S.A.P

    Thank very much
    xxxxxxxx





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  • kondur_007
    06-03 06:37 PM
    this article says and I quote:
    "Mr. Oppenheim stated that immigrant visa applications at U.S. consulates abroad are down seven percent from FY2008. India will use all the visa numbers that are available to its nationals this fiscal year. This is due, in part, to huge increases in the usage of EB4 and EB5 categories. Applicants from India have used twice the number of visas estimated for FY2009"
    now the only category indians could have used up more numbers is EB1, as that is the only category which is current. and this means that india's normal share about 9600 per year, so an extra 9600 EB1 were issued to india, which sounds improbable. this also contradicts what is said in the next paragraph about EB1 usage.
    "Mr. Oppenheim expects that all EB1 visa numbers will be used before the end of FY2009. This may result in the establishment of a cutoff date for the EB1 categories for India and China, beginning in August or September 2009. Usage in the EB1 worldwide category (listed as "all chargeability areas except those listed") is also higher than expected. This may lead to imposition of a cutoff date toward the end of FY2009"
    it can not have gone to EB2 because as Mr. Oppenheimer puts it
    "The EB2 category worldwide is also expected to be over-subscribed and will exhaust all allocated visa numbers before the end of FY2009. To date, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that 3,200 EB2 India visa numbers have been used in FY2009. The high usage in the EB1 category has prevented the usual trickle of visas to the EB2 category"
    so i dont know what he is trying to say when india has used twice the limit in 2009..i would really appreciate any input.
    ALso can somebody please explain this sentence as well
    "He stated that, due to the dramatic increase in employment-based filings visa cutoff dates for FY2010 will be much more limited to ensure that there will be a steady supply of visa numbers available throughout the year"
    However a later report from USCIS says there is a drastic reductionin I 140 apps,
    also just today AILA released that DOL is processing JULY 2008 PERM cases, so where is this demand by increased filings that Mr. Oppenheimer talking about coming from.
    I am totally confused. senior members please analyze


    All these statements are difficult to analyze...I tried to add things up but could not.
    The only way to get the actual idea of what is happening is to look at July, Aug and Sept visa bulletin as well as usage statistics for 2009.

    As far as most of us are concerned, the fiscal year is over and there is no hope till next fiscal year. The analysis of above mentioned visa bulletins and usage statistics may help to understand what to expect over the next fiscal year and thereafter...

    Is all these because of "increase efficiency" of USCIS and FBI that they processed all the old cases (better scenario) or is the result of something else (like tons of EB1C filing) in which case it will be 10+ yrs of delay for most of us:(
    So just wait...



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  • voldemar
    03-28 03:08 PM
    Looks like we have 45 days after the rule goes in effect. Please read the following text.
    Will you please tell us which text you are refering to?
    (2) A permanent labor certification involving a specific job offer
    is valid only for the particular job opportunity, the alien named on
    the original application (unless a substitution was approved prior to
    [effective date of the final rule]), and the area of intended
    employment stated on the Application for Alien Employment Certification
    (ETA Form 750) or the Application for Permanent Employment
    Certification (ETA Form 9089).I'm referring to the above paragraph. The problem is how agency will define "approved" labor substitution.
    I think that labor substitution is approved if I-140 is approved.
    Again, I'm not a lawyer, it's just my understanding.





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  • ramus
    07-03 04:52 PM
    What did you put in the subject field.. It is very important to have right words in subject field so at least they will open the email and see what's in it..




    Dear Senator,

    After having spent thousands of dollars in legal counsel, medical tests, documentations, affidavits and many days of hurried preparation to file adjustment of status (AOS) for my green card application, USCIS has pulled a fast one me and the legal high skilled community.

    On June 13th 2007, Department Of State indicated visa availability for all applicants starting July 1st causing thousands of prospective legal high skilled immigrants to prepare their applications only to be surprised on the very first day (July 2nd) with rejections due to apparent exhaustion of existing visas.

    This unprecented and possibly illegal action on part of USCIS, has left high skilled immigrants like myself in a limbo. We are wondering what we have done to be wronged in this way. I am a law abiding, tax paying resident contributing to the economy.

    Please help us in overcoming this situation. We definetly do not deserve such treatment for having followed the law in the land of opportunity on the eve of independence day.

    Thank You,

    Sincerely,



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  • sparky_jones
    06-28 09:39 AM
    Matthew Oh has been known in the past to be a BIT of a sensationalist.
    Yes, there's no doubt about that. Although Mr Oh must be credited for providing us with valuable "insider" AILA information, he needs to tone down the manner in which he sometimes presents this information. This particular information is flashed as a "Special Red Alert", with very grim language on his blog. He should also have provided details on how AILA's liasion is working with USCIS to correct the situation, which is clearly a violation of regulation on the part of USCIS. Given the clear outrage over the lack of transparency in the case of the "other worker" category, what are the chances that USCIS will do this again, esp when it is against regulation?

    I won't be surprised if OH gets kicked out of AILA...for leaking AILA insider info (good for us), and for his sensationalism (bad for everyone).





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  • hpandey
    07-21 11:42 AM
    My desi neighbor told me about it recently. What are your experience with Amway Quickstar. Have you guys made money from it?

    Looks like you are too new to the US not to know about the Amway scam artists ..

    Remember if you join even your friends will become your enemies :D

    They are like leeaches .. very hard to get rid off.





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  • abhijitp
    07-03 08:17 PM
    please let me know. i have prepared an excel spreadsheet of contacts from previous IV threads + couple other sites on the web





    YesGC_NoGC
    06-26 12:55 PM
    Fact - My 485 has not ben filied yet, still on mercey of Employer after giving them all the paperwork. My PD was current for June filing.

    Rumour - The dates have been retrogressed already for July as USCIS already recd enough applications to fullfill the remaining visa number for this fiscal year. Also USCIS officers visited IV and could sense the number of applications that will pile up on July 1st hence they decided to retrogress and release the dates on Month to month basis.

    Does this make sense !!





    GC_SUCK
    10-17 01:56 PM
    I am finally moving to canada in 2-3 months. Deadline for landing is March 3rd 2007.

    I am done with US Green Card and can not take this stress any more. Starting to sell my house and other stuff soon.



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