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  • nandakumar
    05-28 09:47 PM
    1. Employment-Based Visa Number Movement and Predictions

    Many MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers closely track the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin each month. The most recent Visa Bulletin chart is always available on MurthyDotCom. Given the importance of the cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin, attorneys at the Murthy Law Firm are often asked for predictions as to the movement of the cutoff dates. There is no better source for this information than Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS. Mr. Oppenheim was a guest speaker at a May 20, 2009 American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) meeting, which was attended by most of our attorneys. Mr. Oppenheim�s explanations and visa number / Visa Bulletin expectations for the remainder of FY2009 and for FY2010 are explained below. Readers who are unfamiliar with the Visa Bulletin and the role visa numbers play in the permanent residence (commonly referred to as the �green card�) process should review some of the articles on this important topic that can be found on our website; among them, Priority Dates - How Do They Work?

    Historical Background

    Mr. Oppenheim discussed the historical background that led to the current unavailability of visa numbers, known as retrogression, for certain employment-based (EB) immigrant visa categories. Retrogression is not something new or unfamiliar in immigration law. Most EB numbers were current from July 2001 through January 2005 due to legislative that provided a temporary solution. This legislation authorized unused visa numbers from previous years to be put back into the system. Those additional numbers, along with the annual allotments, were sufficient to meet the demand until January 2005. Since January 2005, the supply of EB visa numbers has fallen short of the demand.

    Current Trends in Visa Usage

    Mr. Oppenheim stated that immigrant visa applications at U.S. consulates abroad are down seven percent from FY2008. India will use all the visa numbers that are available to its nationals this fiscal year. This is due, in part, to huge increases in the usage of EB4 and EB5 categories. Applicants from India have used twice the number of visas estimated for FY2009. Mr. Oppenheim stated that, because of the excess demand, further retrogression may occur over the summer months.

    Predictions for Movement and Usage of EB Visa Numbers

    Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)
    Mr. Oppenheim expects that all EB1 visa numbers will be used before the end of FY2009. This may result in the establishment of a cutoff date for the EB1 categories for India and China, beginning in August or September 2009. Usage in the EB1 worldwide category (listed as "all chargeability areas except those listed") is also higher than expected. This may lead to imposition of a cutoff date toward the end of FY2009.

    Mr. Oppenheim explained that a trickling effect of unused visa numbers between EB categories has helped keep EB1 and EB2 categories current in prior years. However, due to the processing of a high number of applications, this trickling effect has already occurred, but is not expected to occur again in FY2009. Mr. Oppenheim attributed this to the hard work of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), as well as that of the DOS, as they have succeeded in processing enough cases to likely use all available visa numbers from all categories for FY2009. He stated that the DOS and the USCIS are supposed to process enough cases to use the annual allotment of visa numbers and not leave any available visas unused and wasted in any fiscal year.

    Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)
    The EB2 category worldwide is also expected to be over-subscribed and will exhaust all allocated visa numbers before the end of FY2009. To date, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that 3,200 EB2 India visa numbers have been used in FY2009. The high usage in the EB1 category has prevented the usual trickle of visas to the EB2 category. Thus, China will experience the same EB2 retrogression as India in July 2009. The EB2 China cutoff date is expected to be set at January 1, 2000.

    Employment-Based, Third Preference (EB3)
    All EB3 categories are currently unavailable; all available visa numbers have been allocated. No change is expected to occur until the beginning of FY2010.

    Employment-Based, Fourth Preference / Certain Religious Workers
    There has been an unexpectedly heavy usage of visas in the EB4 categories for certain religious worker in FY2009. A cutoff date thus may be set in August or September 2009. Mr. Oppenheim stated that, if the Certain Religious Workers category becomes unavailable, applicants in the ministers category are not affected.

    Visa Numbers for Indian Nationals
    Mr. Oppenheim has set the cutoff date for EB2 India at January 1, 2000. According to current estimates, out of the approximately 200,000 I-485 applications currently pending with USCIS, 120,000 of them are chargeable to India, with the cases divided evenly between EB2 and EB3. This means that EB2 and EB3 India applicants count for 60 percent of the I-485 cases currently pending with the USCIS.

    FY2010 Predictions by Charles Oppenheim of DOS

    Mr. Oppenheim stated that he expects the EB3 worldwide category to have a cutoff date of March 1, 2003, beginning with the October 2009 Visa Bulletin. When asked about the potential cutoff dates for EB3 India, China, and Mexico, Mr. Oppenheim said that it would depend on the demand for these categories over the rest of FY2009.

    Mr. Oppenheim estimated that there are currently 25,000 EB2 and EB3 cases from Indian nationals that have been reviewed and are only waiting for visa numbers for final processing. He stated that, due to the dramatic increase in employment-based filings, visa cutoff dates for FY2010 will be much more limited to ensure that there will be a steady supply of visa numbers available throughout the year. This will lead to earlier cutoff dates and may help prevent visa categories from becoming unavailable.

    Conclusion

    We at the Murthy Law Firm appreciate Mr. Oppenheim's commitment to addressing matters related to visa numbers and the Visa Bulletin. The continued shortage of employment-based visa numbers is a source of great frustration for many and Mr. Oppenheim's predictions do not assuage that feeling. It is better to have an understanding of the reality of the situation, however, than to operate in ignorance or with unrealistic expectations. Once again, the shortage of immigrant visa numbers underscores the need for legislation in this area to increase the numbers, change the counting of the numbers (from one per person to one per family), or to revamp the system entirely.





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  • deepakjain
    08-15 10:17 AM
    If we those who have worked here, paid taxes , abided the law, followed the law of land once we return from India many of us have been questioned. Though as per us nothing might have changed like employer, salary, position, residential address etc etc... still many of our friends are detainted and asked to proved documental proof....{If we who have stayed here for years are detained} then why not SRK or any other person.....

    After staying here for 9 years, I was detained in 2007 for 1 hour for questioning.....that way US has more proof about me for past 9 years then SRK or any other Indian bollywood stars....





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  • alterego
    06-27 07:00 AM
    Visa number retrogression has no basis in the number of I 485s received. It is based on the number approved.
    In the current melee, it will be a huge number of 485s applied, it does not mean the 485s will be approved any quicker.
    Hence I am not sure where you all are getting these rumors from.





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  • chantu
    05-01 04:18 PM
    Guys do not get deceive by CON/UPA govt raising voice for Sikhs in Pak. They raised it because the next phase of elections will be held in Punjab, Himachal, Delhi and Haryana where there are significant Sikh population. CON/UPA govt does not care about Sikhs. They want to cover up for the mess they created because of Tytler issue.

    Also, why did CON/UPA govt did not raise voice when homes and temples of Hindus in Kazakhstan were destroyed.



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  • cps060
    04-04 08:39 AM
    What are your options if the Canadian PR expires (go to CA get PR and come back to US) and you are still in the US ? OR say you are in your 4th/5th year of CA PR and then you then desire to go to CA, can you re-apply for the Canadian PR ? If you can, what is the procedure .... ?

    Anyone who know abt this, please respond.





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  • hydboy77
    09-23 07:35 PM
    Unfortunately we will have to wait until march and not december to find out if DOS is doing quarterly spillover because EB2 row already has more than 7000 pending 485, every quarter there are about 10000 Eb 2 visas, so technically there are already enough EB2 row 485 applications to use up the first quarter numbers.

    offcourse there are only 4000 pending eb1 485 applications and assuming not more than a 1000 new eb1 applications are added to the list there would be 5000 visas that could be spilled over into eb2, the problem is we dont know
    1. If DOS will do spillover every quarter
    2. if by miracle they do spillover will it only in there respective categories i.e Eb2 row to to eb2 india\china, or accross categories eb1-row to Eb2 row to Eb2 India\china

    These questions can only be answered by DOS. Hope DOS looks at what USCIS did and comes out with a Q&A of there own which explains if they are going to do a spillover every quarter or not. If not we will still be speculating to no end. Do we have to file another FOIA request to DOS to find out if they are going to do a spillover every quarter? I hope DOL also published a report every quarter like USCUS which contains the numnber of perm applications pending by month, year and country



    I completely agree with this. USCIS has better date than prior years. PD for October is Jan 2005,the numbers available for first quarter is 750 (approx) and around 700 I485s are in Jan 2005. We will know in Dec whether quarterly spill happens or not.



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  • eb3_2004
    02-14 03:28 PM
    Here is my 2 cents on this

    Lets say the interested muster around plaintiffs and sue USCIS. Also, The court agrees that USCIS did not do its duty. Will the court go to the extent of ruling over INA which clearly says that unused visa numbers cannot be recaptured? Will the courts/judicial system set such a precedent where they will go against law just because the agency failed to implement it correctly? I don't think they will set such a precedent by overruling against the law set up by congress and the President who signed it. By long shot, Can the court recommend congress to fix the situation by changing the law and by allowing recapture? Possibly. Does that help and fix our issue?

    If lawsuit/court cannot make USCIS use the numbers, how can USCIS admin fix do this?.. I am not fighting here (I sent my letters already!!!)...this just came to my mind...





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  • GC_ki_daud
    07-11 04:07 PM
    I have

    EB3 140 approved for June 2004
    and
    EB2 140 approved for May 2006

    My lawyer said that they will file a petiton to apply my EB2 status to my EB3 dates as soon as dates for EB2 cross June 2004

    But now, In this August VB , My EB2 became current .
    What I did not anticipate was the huge 2 year+ jump in EB2 dates


    My 485 was filed in July 2007 and shows the status pending since then.

    I asked my lawyer which 140 did he use to apply my 485 and he says "Both"

    I am confused with a couple of things

    1. Is it possible to file 485 by sending in both 140s. I asked the lawyer and he said that NOW since the date has jumped more than 2 years it is not advisable to file petiton to move dates .

    2. If I call USCIS , will they be able to tell me which 140 was used to file my 485



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  • saketh555
    09-15 06:08 PM
    I guess the priority dates for EB2 will hoover around 2nd Q of 2005. I came to this assumption after seeing mass approvals of 04 applications, looks like they are cleaning all 04 applications:rolleyes:.
    Can't really guess EB3, not even GOD.





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  • vivid_bharti
    09-04 07:13 AM
    India is still a country where 99% people would leave the country given a chance. Also leaving your country and be here as a 2nd grade citizens living your life like an asylee, don't know when you could be thrown out ? You are paying $2000 per year to US govt. to allow them to let us live in the country, we are beaten in Australia, we are beaten in middle east. But 1 thing in common, we don't want to live in India.
    But even if you think Rajiv Gandhi or Indira gandhi did something they did only for 1% people.

    We indian are fed with Gandhi family's name stamped on every grain and every drop that's why you are thinking you are alive because of the Gandhi family. Atal Bihari Vajpayee achieved what Rajiv Gandhi or Indira Gandhi did not achieved in 50 years of Gandhi family rule, but he didn't convert India into a Vajpayee country so you don't know the values. And by the way Rajiv Gandhi played most communal politics than any other PM did. He opened the gates of Ram Janma Bhoomi to douse the fire of Shah Bano case, he is responsible for awakening the Ayodhya Ghost All that I'm saying is why do you need to single out one politician. Can you compare YSR with Mr. Modi(Ghodra Express Issue), Mr Advani(Babri Mazdid Issue)...on how many innocent lives have been lost because of their filthy politics...

    And mind you , you and me are working here in US cos of the open policies created by Mr.Late Rajiv Gandhi in the IT Sector. All that I'm saying is someone or something is better than none.

    For that matter do you support War on Iraq , War on Afghanistan when it comes to people lives...
    First know the facts before you comment and have guts to comment revealing your original ID and not with a hidden one....created just for the sake of it



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  • thepaew
    05-29 09:06 AM
    As far as i can tell, the main issue is that there are not enough visas for Indian applicants. The possible EB1 misuse is a sideshow.

    Currently, the EB2-I wait time is 20+ years. Even if there are no EB1 applications the wait time would reduce to 10+ years. EB3-I wait time is probably more than the life span of most individuals.





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  • sam_i02
    07-24 04:35 PM
    Its not the question of economy alone. When deciding to go back. Its a question about convenience.

    a) I don't want to stand in line to pay my Electric/Telephone/House Tax/Income Tax/Train Ticket/Air Ticket/Bus Ticket/Children Admission-donations/Petrol Line/LP Gas Line/Restaurant Line/Chola Bhatura Line/Samosa Line/RTO Office line/Registration line/License Line/Stock Buy line/Stock Sell Line/Bank Deposit Line/Bank Draft Line/Fixed Deposit Line/Kisaan Vikas Patra Line/Registered/Speed post Line/Blue Dart Line/Company registration line/College admission line/College fee line/University degree line/Interview Line/Booking a Car line/Beer Whisky Line/Canteen Line.

    Half the country stands in line, the other half manages the line. Neither has any civic sense.

    b) I don't want to bribe babus who manage above lines to get ahead in line.

    d) I don't want power failures/cooler failures/ac failures/broken roads/or other catastrophic system failures.

    e) I dont want fake or mixed eating oil / flour / milk / cheese / butter / peppers / lentils / rice

    f) I don't want dangerous chemical fertilizers in my produce (slow killers - massive kidney failure rate in India for past 10 years)

    g) I don't want to teach my children dishonesty and tricks of survival/street smartness (in ref to corruption in India) which don't add any value to their personality.

    h) The only reason I would wanna go back is for my immediate family and friends. Thats the only thing I miss when it comes to India.

    I wouldn't go back and I believe even MK Gandhi himself would'nt leave from Africa for India in todays times.

    Also Its the enemy within (corruption) which can cause great harm and we have that kind of enemy now. You can never ever change the attitudes which people carry in India without another revolution.

    I am sure I can come up with a huge list of positives too, They will sound very good and will give me a great feeling of fake National Pride.

    Now go ahead and kill me for saying all the above.!!
    Wow! This can get ugly very quick.

    But I agree with you. I am from paksitan and feel the same way. This decision is more for my kids future and not mine.

    And yes, along with all of the above, add in religious fundamentalism for my home..... :(



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  • ita
    03-30 11:57 AM
    You obviously have your own reasons for pitching so adamantly for the wrapper MMS.Isn't it strange that he won't even contest the election directly?Did you hear his speech post Mumbai attacks?

    Now back to financial reforms which is his forte...just so you own...

    Sonia held back MMS's hand. She had him appoint the National Advisory Council (NAC) (apart from list of other councils and Congress constitutional changes that she made so the power lies directly in her hands)under her chairmanship with statutory powers to oversee the the reforms.

    It's easy to blame the allies it's tough to suck in the truth when you as an individual have vested interest and not Nation's interest in mind.
    All these vested interests of different individuals are the rungs of Sonia's ladder.In that sense alone she and her family are in
    the right place right time.

    We as individuals don't put in efforts to learn the facts(of course we have so many hurdles in our own life),when some one breaks it down for you, you try to weigh your benefit in accepting/rejecting the facts. Then wake up one day when we get the jolt of Mumbai kind of attacks(She was doing non sense with defence ministry too). Of course there is always IV to come carping( well why not?... carping on forums doesn't need any effort... also it's a good way of passing time)

    I some how knew when I started sharing what I know MMS will catch up in the poll.Look how he is suddenly so popular on this thread's poll.But I still think me sharing all these facts/views is in some way good.

    I believe there were some junkies called Left were holding the Govt and MMS as hostages.... Thats why there is no reform...





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  • chmur
    02-13 12:18 AM
    I think the entire community should align behind Administrative reforms with a laser-focus. This initiative is a digression.

    IV has had it's own share of success with it's approach. No other methods have succeeded so far .

    Also, from my little IV volunteering experience I can vouch that our community has very high inertia and is difficult to organize. people are afraid to send letters to president...good luck in getting them to sue USCIS.

    community does not have the bandwidth to take multiple initiatives.

    I see no wisdom in doing this. USCIS/DOS can screw us worse , if they wish to . This is not being timid but being pragmatic...anyway the bravado talk also needs to be followed up by multiple clear paths to victory.



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  • bestin
    02-13 05:43 AM
    Agreed dude.

    But the system is totally messed up and we cant have an overnight change .Even if they initiate something now by the time it gets actually implemented it shuld be more than 1 year.If nothing works out within atleast 1.5 years to 2 years this should be definitely considered.





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  • vdlrao
    09-15 02:44 PM
    I just wondering seeing these estimated numbers, with out having a proper information, for the given years.



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  • morchu
    06-05 02:38 PM
    I guess many have mentioned this before.

    Diversity should not be based on "country" as well. For example I can easily say that "India" has to be considered as "20 different countries", if it divided based on diversity. And probably many of the europian countries combined should be "1 country".

    Means if the diversity quota is 100 per year, to call for proper diversity.....
    2000 for India...
    100 for many of the european countries combined....

    (Note: I didn't mean "ALL of europe", I know that whole Europe is pretty diverse as well...)

    Country based "diversity" doesn't make sense at all.





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  • 485Mbe4001
    01-23 04:50 PM
    what happens to the people who got their GC's using labor from this guys company? Hopefully they are not affected, it will be sad to see their lives in trouble because of him.





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  • vin13
    09-15 12:41 PM
    Seems like the spill-overs happen at the end of the year which helps dates for India to advance.

    Has the process changed to where the spill-over is calculated and issued every quarter? If not, this could be a possible administrative change that can be proposed by IV.





    nk2006
    10-09 02:49 PM
    A GC cannot be filed directly from a TN or E3 status.


    As mihird said, not much difference. I am a naturalized Canadian working in US for last 7 years (country of birth � India) � Canadian citizenship does not help much in I485 stage since you will fall under the quota of country of birth. One small advantage is consular processing � Canadians can apply for CP at Montreal which used to be faster. But with retrogession and improved AOS processing in USA makes this irrelevant.

    Another general advantage is use of TN1 visa instead of H1B. You can actually start/continue green card processing while in TN1 visa status � it needs some careful planning but it can be done. Basically you cannot get/renew TN1 visa once I-485 is filed but until then you can continue on TN1 while your labor/140 is under process and while you are waiting for the dates to get current. But this aspect is generally misunderstood and many lawyers insist on transferring to H1B even before starting the labor process (which happened in my case leading to my present state where I am extending h1b beyond 6th/7th year). Basically with a good lawyer and flexible employer you can use TN1 as long as possible, so that you don�t get into 6th/7th year h1b tensions � this can be a slight advantage in some cases.





    deepakjain
    01-22 04:17 PM
    Deepak, are you a consultant or FTE?

    I work on full time basis. have pending 485 and do have EAD and AP, per my attorney decided to get visa stamped on my passport so that do not have to renew AP and EAD every year. I do not intend to leave the employer neither does my employer has any intention of kicking me out.



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