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  • JazzByTheBay
    06-05 01:41 AM
    It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.

    Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".

    jazz


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.





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  • unitednations
    07-08 04:30 PM
    unitednations..!!

    r u the same from immigrationportal.com.. !! people r looking out for u in this immigration greencard darkness..

    Yes, that is the same person. I felt discouraged and decided to not actively post; unless there is some real interesting issue.

    I consider this a real interesting issue.





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  • smisachu
    12-27 11:35 PM
    As someone who comes from an army family and who has been trained as a reserve, I want to assure you guys who think that an Indo-Pak war will linger; that it will not. It will take Indian army 15-20 days to reach Islamabad if the full force is deployed and the army is in charge of the war and not our politicians.
    Pak has nukes, but their delivery mechanism is not sound and before Pak launches any nukes, US will disarm them and even if a few are launched India had a very good anti missile shield which will intercept and destroy all warheads before it enters Indian air.
    Now to actual strategies that India should follow-
    1. The civilian government in Pak is not at fault, previously they were responsible for terrorist attacks on India but now they are suffering at the hands of a monster of their own making. Terrorism and ISI.
    2. India should use air and missile power to strike out and wipe out a 500km radius around each terrorist camps while offering an olive branch to the Pak govt. What this does is it will kill with certainty all terrorists and will also wipe out surrounding villages.
    3. These are casualties of war and are a necessary evil, it will strike fear in the hearts of villagers and when ever a terrorist camp is set up; the surrounding villagers will chase them out in fear of India's wrath.
    4. India should send RAW analysts to assassinate all rouge ISI officers, if needed Mossad of Israel can help India.
    5. Finally the only way to deal with the problem of Pakistan longtime is to either socially cleanse Pakistan for the civilian government and bring in more modernism or carve out pakistan into several independent states. This is a long term goal which has to be thought about.

    If anyone is interested I can post the actual army strengths of India and Pak, its an interesting statistic and I am sure the Pak government knows about it in more detail than me. And it beats me that in spite of knowing the facts they are doing all this war posing. Just a tit bit from it, Indian army (only) is 1.3mil + 450K (reserves) strong. The combined Pak armed forces are 450K active + 500K reserves. India outnumbers Pak in almost every aspect 1:5 on an average. We have fought 4 wars and India has won all 4 times, why should the 5th time be any different? Lets finish this and move on, we have to become an economic superpower and we cannot be bothered by such trivial things like terrorism and pakistan. Lets take terror to the terrorists, like the song from the Hindi movie Arjun goes
    " Dushman ko yeh dikadho dushmani hai kya...":cool:





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  • ImmInd
    08-05 10:59 AM
    My Friend 'Rolling_Flood':

    Please remember that EB2 is better than EB3. As someone mentioned, people always want to move up in all activities (work, life, anything).

    And, please remember what will happen if you (iff you are in EB2 now) fall down due to some issues in EB2 case documents or filing, etc ? You may start with EB3 again and we will not tell you at that time saying ' you are EB3 guy and low skilled category'. We still feel bad for you.

    I have Masters, more then 5 yrs exp (at that time of filing) and EB2 Title - but, my employer has some restrictions which limits them to not file in EB2. I ended up in EB3 :)

    I do not intend to attack - but, we are trying to just explain... Again, I am not affended !!! Please read and think before you post something like this...



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  • tdasara
    01-28 12:21 AM
    There has never been a mention of the H1b visas approved and those that do not fall under the quota....

    This guy is just after his ratings nothing else...his book explicitly quotes that H1b and L1 visa holders do not pay any taxes and transfer all the money home. (CNN has a few hundreds of them on H1b)

    When there was a huge debate on illegal immigration he quoted he was all for legal immigration. The only way one can legally immigrate with skills is via H1b visa and he is against it.





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  • shsk
    07-13 01:42 AM
    I am in for it, a very great initiative.
    But would request to check with IV first on this



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  • unitednations
    03-24 02:27 PM
    Why on earth would an employer need me if I don't have merits?

    I see your efforts to downgrade EB immigration and highlight FB immigration. This is just my observation, you don't have to agree or criticize it.

    Is it fair to say that on one side you have the people who are trying to limit immigration.

    On the other side you have people who want friendlier immigration policies. Within the friendlier immigration poliices; you have more self interest groups:

    h-1b group of self interest
    Liberia self interest groups
    lawful permanent resident spouse
    political asylum groups
    aged out groups
    universities with student visas
    unlawful interest groups
    h-2 groups
    nurses, etc.
    employment base groups.


    All of these self interest groups go to media, senators, congressment etc., with their stories and why they think they should have their demands met. My personal opinion is that if a person can stay here and legally work and wait then they are not as disadvantaged as companies/people who are waiting to get in.

    When you are going to do advocacy you need to know beyond your individual case and how you stack up across the board.





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  • Macaca
    02-24 08:17 AM
    Some paras from Democrats Offer Up Chairmen For Donors (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/23/AR2007022301978.html), By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and John Solomon (http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/jeffrey+h.+birnbaum++and+john+solomon/), Washington Post Staff Writers, Saturday, February 24, 2007

    Eager to shore up their fragile House and Senate majorities, congressional Democrats have enlisted their committee chairmen in an early blitz to bring millions of dollars into the party's coffers, culminating in a late-March event featuring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and 10 of the powerful panel chairs.

    In the next 10 days alone, Democratic fundraisers will feature the chairmen of the House's financial services panel and the House and Senate tax-writing committees. Senate Democrats also plan a fundraising reception during a major gathering of Native Americans in the capital Tuesday evening, an event hosted by lobbyists and the political action committee for tribal casinos, including those Jack Abramoff was paid to represent.

    The Democrats' push will culminate late next month when Pelosi and 10 of her chairmen huddle with donors at the Northern Virginia home of shopping-center developer Albert J. Dwoskin for an event to benefit the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

    The asking price for the March 21 dinner is $28,500 per couple, making it one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's highest-dollar fundraisers since new campaign finance limits were enacted in 2002.

    In addition to Pelosi and Frank, other senior House Democrats slated to attend include John D. Dingell (Mich.) of the Energy and Commerce Committee, David R. Obey (Wis.) of the Appropriations Committee, Ike Skelton (Mo.) of the Armed Services Committee, John Conyers Jr. (Mich.) of the Judiciary Committee, George Miller (Calif.) of the Education and Labor Committee, and James L. Oberstar (Minn.) of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

    The tactics are hardly new. Republicans aggressively used their committee chairmen -- and the promise of access to them -- to raise money from interest groups and lobbyists during the party's 12 years of congressional control. They tracked donations closely and pressed lobbying firms to hire GOP lobbyists through the "K Street Project," promising "intimate" issue briefings with the chairmen in return for big donations.

    And the GOP is hardly sitting on the sidelines this year. Republicans are also using their top lawmakers on committees to haul in donations. Rep. John L. Mica (Fla.), the ranking Republican on Transportation and Infrastructure, is scheduled to headline a "transportation luncheon" fundraiser in coming days for fellow House Republican Jerry Moran (Kan.).



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  • gimme_GC2006
    03-23 12:31 PM
    You/lawyer/employer may have forgotten to shred the extra/unwanted documents. Someone may have got hold of them.

    Google 'identity theft' and you will be surprised.

    Do not answer anyone unless to check. Ask for a call back number. Find the name , badge number. ask them to send you an email with a legit id and you will call back.

    You should anyways never talk alone to such people even if they are real. Ask them to talk to your lawyer. If they ask you his number, tell them to find from the application.

    Basically never give any information on the phone.

    well..I guess..I will take Infopass and checkout whats going on..
    I know my file is at local office..not sure if they transferred it back to NBC or TSC..(atleast there are no LUDs)..

    and I hope whoever called me can see it in their system that this case is pending at local office..so dont know why they wanted all the detailsfrom me rather than taking from the file..may be thats how they work..


    but I am heading to Infopass have enough doubts now :cool:





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  • vdlrao
    07-14 01:03 PM
    I presume EB2 India will be current by next October. Till now for EB2 India there are only 1/3 of 7% of 140K visas which are 3,266. Due to the new change of horizontal fall outs EB2 India exclusively getting about 32k visas, very little share to china. So this change making an availability of about 30k aditional visas to EB2 India along with regular 3,266. So total About 32K visas for EB2 India. This includes unused Family Visa Numbers as well. So from now on EB2 India getting almost 10 times more visas.

    And due to the change to Horizontal Fall out of Visa Numbers from Vertical Fall outs, Its not the India which loses but its EB3 ROW.



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  • pitha
    04-08 05:43 PM
    Bill Preskal (I am not sure about the spelling of his name) is going to introduce a semilar bill in the house within the next few weeks. Seems like there is a well oiled machine which is stream rolling this.





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  • damialok
    03-31 01:50 PM
    Example: $ 500,000/- purchase price (3000 sq ft single family home)
    Land cost: 80,000/- ( defined by county - assessment record)
    Construction cost: 1,40,000/- (If you do home work you can easily
    derive current construction cost)
    Let's say you give the order to somebody to construct: Add his 25%
    profit which is reasonable)

    I am currently looking to build my home in SF Bay Area and these figures dont look that encouraging. Here is what I have got and this is due to severe crunch in construction industry.

    Land: $600,000 (it was listed for $850K 12 months back, thats after 25% drop)
    Construction Cost: $190/sqft (It was $280~$350 2 years back) - for 3000sqft - $570,000
    City Permits and Architectural fees - $120,000

    A grand total of $1.3 Million. But this if if you were to build it, the run-of-the-mill tract home builders can get it much cheaper, say around $1million.
    Again these figures vary by region but generally give a picture of cost breakdown in California.


    Land - 46%
    Construction- 44%
    Permits - 10%



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-05 12:33 PM
    A Kentucky couple, both bona fide rednecks, had 9 children.

    They went to the doctor to see about getting the husband "fixed." The doctor gladly started the required procedure and asked them what finally made them make the decision.

    Why after nine children, would they choose to do this?

    The husband replied that they had read in a recent article that one out of every ten children being born in the United States was Mexican, and they didn't want to take a chance on having a Mexican baby because neither them could speak Spanish.





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  • logiclife
    06-01 06:09 PM
    The culture of rant, the tendency of being angry at all times has landed success to many broadcast journalists, authors and politicians.

    On the right:

    Rush Limbaugh.
    Bill O Reilly.
    Sean Hannity.
    Ann Coulter(not a journalist but close).

    On the left:

    Howard Dean.
    Al Sharpton.

    It seems that the more angry you are, the more successful you are. What surprises me is the Republicans control the congress and the white house and still, Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, Lou Dobbs etc. are angry at all times. They are angry if Bill Clinton is President. They are angry if George Bush is president. They are angry when Democrats win, they are angry even if republicans win. They are just angry and they want everyone else to be angry. Probably, there is a secret key to ratings success written somewhere in a secret book in a secret library that these guys have read. And that books says "Make thy audience mad at someone and thou shalt see success in thy Neilson ratings".



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  • Raju
    05-24 03:40 PM
    Nothing new. Of course the US needs to bring the bright and the best. Yes, I agree with you the US apparently doesn't have the necessary number of people with advanced degrees in science right now. I never told you to shut down the H1B or decrease the numbers. I am just saying, can people respect the other side and suggest more sensible mechanisms ? Can one understand that an automatic increase of 20% per year can cause hardship to citizens caught in a future and unexpected recession ? That's all I am saying.

    Folks, this is what concerns me. We are all very educated people and we cannot have a decent conversation. Many in this thread gets angry at me. As Lou Dobbs says, that is shocking. :-)

    Have a good one.

    Communique

    Hey do you that if something like that happens then Congress will decrease the numbers automatically





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  • logiclife
    05-31 06:18 PM
    Tucker Carlson(Yeah, the one who was mocked by Jon Stewart and eventually was scrapped from CNN's crossfire) is next in the recruitment line for Fox News.

    For a job at Fox I think Tucker and Lou pretty much are competing. Both think that immigrants are the cause of deficit and all the economic crisis(if such a thing exists today). However, I am sure both love their houses built by illegals, the lettuce picked by illegals.

    Lou Dobbs is along the lines of Pat Buchanan. He would rather insulate the United States from the rest of the world and isolate. Against immigration, against outsourcing, against free-trade. Sort of like built a huge Igloo around the country so that the immigrants dont plunder the wealth and property that Lou has created with his bare hands.



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  • sumanitha
    01-07 10:22 AM
    Dude..

    I am not against any religion.. but at the same time when something bad/evil is pointed out in any religion, try to accept it as a part and if you can try to mend it..

    First try to accept thy mistake... then point fingers... (It applies to everyone.. including me)

    Keep barking the same thing again and again. This is not going to make even a small dent on my faith. The more you hate, the more we love our faith.





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  • xyzgc
    12-28 12:35 AM
    As much as terrorism is an evil thing, surgical strikes and stuff won't do crap. It will further alienate and give fodder to the mullahs to create more Kasab's. Really, do you think we can stop 20 yr old guys who are willing to kill themselves, think again? These guys are just washed out completely, there is no retribution, pain, all they see is a target and blow themselves out.

    Instead, we should concentrate on the war within that we face. Be it from communal/political/socio-economic violence or lack of regard for the common man's life. By no means I am saying inaction but war is certainly not the solution. Pakistan will meet its fate sooner than later if they continue the path they have chosen. We don't have to hasten it.

    200 Indians dying is painful but look at these figures to put things into perspective.

    Accidents in India:
    http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublinkimages/table-6408184011.htm

    AIDS
    http://www.avert.org/indiaaids.htm

    Infant Mortality:
    http://www.indexmundi.com/India/infant_mortality_rate.html

    Rapes
    http://keralaonline.com/news/india-ranks-rape-cases_12144.html

    These are all staggering numbers and something none of us have to depend on a third country to seek the cure.

    I hope India continues to apply diplomatic pressure and show the world the parasite Pakistan it has become. As Zardari today acknowledged, they have a cancer within the country, its eating up. If they don't, its just a matter of time. To cure that, if they find mullahs as their doctors, time will be up pretty soon..

    Do you mean we should spend the $26 billion on defence budgets (yearly) just to make hollow noises and allow terrorists to run amok in our cities and attack our senate?How many years your folks in India have paid taxes to the central govt? Have you tracked the tax money that goes out of your family's pockets?

    Or are you saying that we should donate our arsenal to Pakistan and stop spending on defence, henceforth?

    Children are blinded to make beggars in Bombay, women get raped in Delhi, sex workers have AIDS all over the metros, so you are saying we should divert all our defence budgets towards humanitarian causes?
    Why don't you suggest this to Honorable Mr. Manmohan Singh and Honorable P Chidambaram and see if your Utopian proposal will be ever accepted?





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  • Macaca
    02-17 02:35 PM
    American Immigration Control Foundation (AICF (http://www.aicfoundation.com/))
    Americans for Legal Immigration - ALIPAC (http://www.alipac.us/)
    American Patrol/Voice of Citizens Together (http://www.americanpatrol.com)
    California Coalition for Immigration Reform (http://www.ccir.net/)
    Californians for Population Stabilization (http://www.cap-s.org/main.html)
    Center for Immigration Studies (CIS (http://www.cis.org/))
    Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform (CAIR (http://www.cairco.org/))
    Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR (http://www.fairus.org/site/PageServer))
    The Heritage Foundation (http://www.heritage.org/)
    Minutemen (http://www.minutemanproject.com/)
    NumbersUSA (http://www.numbersusa.com/index)
    Population-Environment Balance (http://www.balance.org/)
    Pro English (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1533)
    Programmer's Guild (http://www.programmersguild.org/)
    ProjectUSA (http://www.projectusa.org/)
    The Social Contract Press (http://rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/1539)
    U.S. English (http://www.us-english.org/inc/)
    U.S. Inc.

    Hate Groups (http://www.splcenter.org/intel/map/hate.jsp)
    Comments

    These organizations do not disclose the contributions made to them and the management of these contributions.
    Most of these organizations have full time employees.





    sc3
    07-14 05:29 PM
    I definitely feel that EB3 should go ahead with this campaign. there has to be some fairness ...if we don't speak up then year after year, the same thing will happen and maybe in 2015, EB3 will get spillover visas. those who are writing against EB3 --tell me this, if a person who has come to US in 2007 and he has applied during the july fiasco ..and if he gets preference over a EB3 person who is still stuck with a PD of 2002 ..would you still say that the system is fair ???
    my point is let there be a little spillover ...maybe in a ratio of 2 to 1 ..but a little bit atleast ..is that asking for too much ???


    yes, we should continue with the campaign. However, I am more concerned about getting what has been already made available to us. While I am willing to play by the rules and wait, I am not willing to cede my place in the line.

    Asking for 2 to 1 ratio etc. is something new, and will require legislative process, on that I am not an ardent supporter, there we can just request (and hope for the best), but in making sure we are getting what we were promised is demanding the best.





    nogc_noproblem
    08-07 02:06 PM
    Instructions: Just read the sentence straight through quickly without really thinking about it.

    Acocdrnig to an elgnsih unviesitry sutdy the oredr of letetrs in a wrod dosen't mttaer, the olny thnig thta's iopmrantt is that the frsit and lsat ltteer of eevry word is in the crcreot ptoision. The rset can be jmbueld and one is stlil able to raed the txet wiohtut dclftfuiiy.

    Amazing, isn't it?



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