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  • Legal
    07-24 07:26 PM
    VDLRAO Ji,

    Can you throw some light on the points said by Attorney Ron. Is Ron overstating numbers or some thing is missing in calculations

    My conclusion is just like every one else Ron Gotcher is also speculating.





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  • _TrueFacts
    09-04 01:31 PM
    Breddy2000 and dealsnet,

    I hope you guys don�t owe anything to YSR!.

    If you love YSR, that�s your business. As much as you love, facts are facts and YSR being CM for 5 years is the biggest loss to AP and people of AP.

    Also, it�s a curse that India and Indians are paying to have had congress rule India for 60 years.





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  • amsgc
    12-19 07:40 PM
    PD and EBI/II/III shlould be ad to the above list.





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  • WeldonSprings
    09-15 04:36 PM
    Hello Sachug 22,

    Where are you getting numbers for EB2 India for 2005 to be 10000, when total labor approved for 2005 were just 6133 (for all countries).

    Thanks,
    WeldonSprings.

    2004 2000
    2005 10000
    2006 13000
    2007(july) 5000
    Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

    <=2004 2000
    2005 10000
    2006 13000
    2007(july) 5000
    ==============
    Total 30000
    ==============

    This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

    Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
    EB2 50000
    EB3 94000
    EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

    We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

    2005
    EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

    2006
    India PERM applications = 18000
    EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

    So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.



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  • bfadlia
    02-19 03:09 PM
    You have to look at the context in which my comments were made. Somebody said that H4 spouses go to college and pay instate fees but they have to pay international fees. I never said that ROW people do not have any of those problems but it just that we have to endure that for some more years. Having said that, I reiterate that I want my GC fast but not at the expense of ROW people. They do not have to endure a longer wait.

    I thought this thread was given a decent burial, I could trust only you to bring this thread back to life with your hidden agenda of driving a wedge between Indians/Chinese and ROW.

    NKR, you said u r replying to someone else.. i don't know why u then quoted me in ur message and in the end added that I didn't care about u.. is it normal that we run down each other for no reason.. what bad thing did i ever say about u..
    sorry that u got the impression the thread was dead, i was away (soccer then resting u know) and came back to see someone else left me hate/curse messages, and speaking on IV's behalf and no one cared to tell him that both acts were not appropriate.. tell me why is it that u (and may be others) agree that removing the country limit is wrong and that saying some nationality is better and brighter than others is also wrong yet not one is defending me when i make those same arguments and get insulted in the process..





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  • polapragada
    10-16 12:29 PM
    Interesting statistics posted on Ron Gotcher forum

    Credit to Nolefan


    Hello Ron,
    I have been silent spectator for long and I greatly enjoy reading this blog. The knowledge you bring is great. The blog is very informative & insightful and has given us lots of useful information. I have been thinking of contributing to this blog for sometime related to Pending visa number and spillover topic and this is my first post regarding that.

    Recently, I did some calculations on EB1 & EB spillover to EB2 India/China for FY 2010. Here are points I considered

    * Average Consular processing numbers for EB1 & EB2 / year are based on historic data from 1998 to 2008. (Data is available on DHS site)
    * All ROW EB1 & EB2 applications from following categories will be approved before spill over happens
    o consular processing (EB1 & EB2)
    o ROW (EB1 & EB2) + Mexico + Philippines
    * most applications for India / China EB2 from 2004 and prior are approved except few as mentioned on CIS report.
    * Even if there are EB2 ROW I140 applications are pending, they may not be more than few thousands (based historic EB2 usage from EB2 ROW). Based on economic conditions, I assumed 5000 new I485 applications after approval of I140.


    Calculations

    EB1 spill over

    Total quota allowed: 40040
    Average consular processing: 5290
    AOS Pending: 4050
    New applications: 2500
    spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 5290 � 4050 � 2500
    spill over from EB1~ 28500

    EB2 spill over

    Total quota allowed: 40040
    Average consular processing: 2199
    AOS Pending (ROW): 7871
    New applications: 2500
    spill over from EB1 ~ 40040 - 2199 � 7871 � 2500
    spill over from EB1~ 27470

    Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 28500 + 27470

    Total EB1 & EB2 spill over = 55970


    EB4 spill over
    Total quota allowed: 9800
    Average visa numbers used: 7432�� based on data from 1998 to 2008
    spill over = 2368

    EB5 spill over
    Total quota allowed: 9800
    Average visa numbers used: 465 �� based on data from 1998 to 2008
    2008 data: 1360
    spill over : 8440



    Total spill over for EB2 India / China: spill over from (EB1 + EB2 + EB3 + EB4)

    i.e. 28500 + 27470 + 2368 + 8440 ..

    Total spill over for EB2 India / China: 66778

    Preadjudicated EB2 India / China applications ~ 51000

    Total pending EB2 India / China ~ 67061

    If spill over occurs quarterly, then I would expect EB2 India / China dates should faster throughout year may be current by end of FY 2010.


    Too good to believe..I hope it would go correct:D
    And one more PRO factor is that EB1 are under high scruitny so less EB1s so high spillovers than ever before..



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  • hopfully_gc
    07-29 10:08 AM
    Dear Mr.Pappu,
    I need to take an appointment with the attrorney. Can you please help me how to procced?
    Thank you





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  • newuser
    09-23 09:15 PM
    E-mailed everyone on the list. Only one bounced ID.



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  • nrk
    10-21 02:48 PM
    Did you missed out the year 2006 or You expect the annual spillover happens in August and Septemeber 2010 bulletins so that they will move more than one year for EB2

    I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007





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  • jaithran
    01-14 09:24 AM
    First of all, I am neither a donor nor a person interested in spending any of my time & energy (Except filing documents and visiting forums like IV once in a while to check progress) in running behind this GC stuff, as that�s not my priority-simple. But I wish and would really be happy if I get my GC quicker as it got its benefits. Having said that, I am not against any kind of efforts volunteered by people/group, who are very serious about GC and I really respect and appreciate their efforts, but I think I have the freedom to express my sincere opinion.
    Plainspeak really make some sense here because sometimes just getting satisfied with a patch up solution would be a bigger disaster in longer run. As person being here in US for a decade and being in the GC Queue for half a decade, I strongly believe EB2-I is never going to be current anymore and EB3-I is never going to get any spill over from the DV bill if passed in its current format. So the option left here is either take whatever you get and hope for the best OR (EB2 and EB3) together fight/work for the right thing to happen, instead of being silent just because you may be a beneficiary of the current format, though it�s not right. I hope everyone here will agree and accept that the right thing would be EB-3 getting at least 50% of spill over whatever EB-2 gets. IV may not succeed in that effort but IV being silent can never be justified.
    Also Volunteering is something which you do for the benefit of others without any expectation and I really appreciate all the volunteers here for their efforts but, some of them often directly/indirectly pass derogatory comments on non-donors and non-volunteers especially when they differ on views and immediately they ask, how many congress men you met? � Which is inappropriate and it�s like saying either agree with what we say or shut up, if you are a not a volunteer or donor. And nothing wrong in you having a policy like that but in that case you can restrict the write access to only volunteers and donors. I am also totally against any non-donors/non-volunteers making derogatory comments on volunteers/donors as they deserve more appreciation than derogatory comments for what they do.



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  • unitednations
    02-18 10:13 PM
    In my opinion, it is more relevant to EB immigration....To support a higher number of benefit recipient you need a higher number of EB immigrant who are more likely to be productive that FB immigrants.....

    Now that is equivalent of passing judgment on FB immigrants as being unproductive.....I know I am going to get flak on that...


    Remember a few posts back; I had said that I thought it was difficult to get h-1b or EB based greencard because it would be pretty difficult to prove that no American is qualified for the job. I wish I had never got involved in immigration so that I could have kept with that thought.

    However; I am sure that just about everyone on these boards also thinks that.

    The employment base definition of a skilled worker is a job which requires two years of experience (this is the same thing as a professional worker where the job requires a degree). Would you be surprised to know that just about everyone who is coming through family base or lottery visa would also fall into the definition of skilled worker.

    In the past three years; I have seen an administrative assistant get sponsored as a skilled worker; a cook making $8.50 as a specialty cook at an Indian restaurant; 8 phillipinos getting sponsored as cooks with a wage of $9.00 at a restaurant; a convenience store clerk; (from reading administrative appeals decisions; i have seen a driving instructor, horse trainer, etc.). All of these jobs fit into a definition of "skilled worker" and share same eb3 category as professional.





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  • TeddyKoochu
    09-17 01:33 PM
    You are right on the point. In fact (I may be overly optimistic here), I would not be surprised at all to see PD of EB2I in 2007 or 2008 in the last quarter (Aug-Sept) and it may even see the magincal "C" in Sept 2010. (Making the dream come true for VDLRAO!!)

    (Remember, with preadjudications, there are no more pending EB2-ROW (except for the new adjudications) and EB2 China has been in 2006 for quite some time as well in the past)

    I sincerely hope your words come true! It has been a long wait for people who missed Jul 07. Lets hear from the expert VDL Rao.



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  • willigetgc?
    01-14 12:03 PM
    .





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  • eyeswe
    09-15 01:31 PM
    It seems most analysts here think that by Q4 2010 the approval of 485 could theorotically reach mid 2006 with a liberal allocation of spill-overs and a conservative estimate of abandonment etc.

    My question is in order for CIS to have sufficient 485 cases to review .. will they not need to advance dates still further so they can start reviewing the apps and in 2-4 years time give those folks the GC.. I am specifically talking about all those who missed the July 2007 bus and whose priority date is after july 30, 07.... any hope for poor souls like us to at least file for EAD in 2010?Or is this wishful thinking?



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  • reddymjm
    09-23 04:35 PM
    One thing, assume if it works out and 50% of the people are able to buy houses and get the GC, they are out of the queue right, so automatically the back logs are gone and the remaining people not able to buy the house will get benifited.

    I am waiting for my GC to buy a house.





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  • nixstor
    09-23 02:31 AM
    I have sent close to 10 emails putting subject

    "Proposal to alleviate current US economic crisis"

    I hope I am doing right..

    Housing/economic crisis rather than economic crisis

    Please send emails from your own emails so that we can know what staff members and their bosses think.



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  • neil.0505
    08-07 11:53 AM
    Details:

    *Company A has filled for my H1B Cancellation on June 20 but have visa stamped (valid till 2010).
    * Company B has filed for my H1B Transfer.(Have upgraded to Premium processing)
    * Have to enter canada on/before 4th Sept to validate canadian PR (will have to go to canada only for few days).

    Q: Can I re-enter in the US from on a VISA(Valid till 2010) from company A + Approved I-797 from company B?


    Your help will be appreciated!

    Thanks
    Neil





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  • Pineapple
    12-14 05:45 PM
    Read my previous post explaining how things would work without country limits.
    All you need to do is recall basic probability theory from school. No country quotas is the only fair way to go, as it would give any individual a fair go, regardless of nationality. I thought this premise was self evident.. but evidently, I'm wrong, and there is some explanation to do.

    I hope explaining the facts and reasoning helps, and the feeling that "country quotas protect smaller countries" has nothing to do with the old saying:

    "When you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always rely on support from Paul"
    :rolleyes:

    We are all in this together, guys... As per the original intent of the thread, we were supposed to discuss whether the 7 % quota is constitutional. That discussion is not yet settled.

    The main point is, based on current caps and quotas, all of us are stuck.

    One way or another, we need to (A) raise number of EB visas, and (B) Eliminate quotas which distort the market and give unfair advantage to one nationality over another.

    --What you said sounds very interesting. But it got me thinking, what if the merit is equally distributed by the country of origin and there is a limit to the opportunities this country can provide?


    Let us say there are 140,000 EB visas given every year. Based on pure merit and sans any regard to nationality. Don't you think it could potentially lead to more visas being consumed by one country?

    What if this country wants to ensure diversity to its social fabric?? How do they go about doing that?





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  • GCWhru
    07-23 11:38 AM
    Guys,

    I think we have talked and analyzed enough about how many visas available for August and September and pretty much arrived at conclusion that at the minimum 20K visas available. (Thanks to vdlrao).


    Now we should talk about capability of USCIS and its processing speed? What is the normal approval rate with USCIS's regular processing. Also we heard that USCIS recruited many people, Do we suppose to see any improvement in processing. Do we think all the 20K visas will be used within 2 months?


    If USCIS is going to approve only 5K visas over next 2 months, there is no point in talking how many visas left.

    Thanks





    unseenguy
    08-16 06:14 PM
    In that case we have to do it everyday...not only when SRk was detained. are you doing that...no. Why?

    There is difference between a common man and a celebrity. We did make noise about Abdul Kalam and Fernandez when the news came out. I think SRK was right to make an issue out of it.

    I have been through secondary once and frisked about 4-5 times as a "singled out" case. Man I hated it, whole flight was watching what was going on. What if I make an issue? It will be dismissed as everyone goes through it.

    When I went for secondary exam , I was released with 5 mins of questioning but was made to wait 30 mins. The secondary officer was nice, but the primary inspection officer was really mean. She picked on me coz I was smiling in the queue and talking to other people. and I laughed at the jokes cracked by other immigration officers.

    3 out of 4 frisking incidents were insensitive and derogatory.

    But voice of celebrity has more credence to it.





    waiting4gc
    02-13 02:30 PM
    Couldn't agree with you more.

    What ever gave you the idea that EB ROW only wait for 3 years? There's this common misconception flying around here that somehow ROW just cruises by and we get GC handed to us on a platter when in fact up until yesterday EB-3 ROW was just as retrogressed as any other category not to mention that labor (pre PERM) and name check delays affected ROW just as much as everyone else. For instance, my brother, who is EB3-ROW with a PD of Dec 2002... and has been in the US since early 2000 and is still waiting in line...so do the math.

    We're all in this crap together, some worse than others... so let's stop with this ROW Vs India & China nonsense. Country quotas are unfair and frankly the entire GC process is unfair and unpredictable... We should aim for solutions that solve this issue in a comprehensive way, not by dividing us even further.



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