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  • bayarea07
    09-24 07:27 PM
    Interesting Analysis from Greg Siskind

    http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/

    COULD ELECTION YEAR POLITICS HELP RECAPTURE BILL'S CHANCES?
    Yesterday, I wrote about a great bill that was introduced by Senator Menendez that would recapture hundreds of thousands of unused green card numbers, ease the strict per country limits that cause long lines for nationals of some countries and also make it easier to get a waiver when someone is subject to an unlawful presence bar.It also changes the definition of an "immediate relative" to include spouses and children of permanent residents, a provision which would be wildly popular in the Hispanic community since it would cut out the multiyear waits typical in the Family 2A category.

    And, oh yeah, there's another bill that people are talking about. The E-Verify program (DHS' much discussed electronic employment verification system) expires in November.

    E-Verify is the heart of the entire enforcement agenda for the antis and with Congress set to adjourn in the next week or so and with the distinct possibility that this will put off all legislation until next February or so when the new Congress comes in, getting E-Verify extended in the next few days is a huge deal. A five year extension has passed the House already. The Senate has done nothing yet.

    So it was with great interest that I read in yesterday's CQ Today print edition that Senator Menendez is blocking the E-Verify reauthorization bill in order to force consideration of the recapture bill. The article describes Republicans as being infuriated and saying that the recapture bill is a nonstarter and demanding Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid bring up a clean E-Verify extension bill.

    On the House side, interestingly, the recapture bill was set for a markup in the Judiciary Committee yesterday and Congressman Conyers abruptly adjourned the hearing after a bill barring horse slaughtering was finished yesterday. According to my sources, several members of the Committee were shocked that the markup on the recapture bill didn't happen even though Conyers is a strong backer of the measure. Strange.

    So that has me speculating. Is something cooking with the Democratic leadership and the Obama campaign? I think the Democrats smell blood. They know John McCain is in trouble with Hispanic voters based on recent polling data. He's polling anywhere from 10 to 20 points worse than Bush did in 2004 and the Hispanic vote partially explains why Obama finds himself ahead in places like New Mexico and Colorado, states Bush won in 2004. Erosion of support in the Hispanic community could also cost McCain Florida, a state McCain cannot lose if he has any chance of winning the election.

    As I reported earlier this week, the McCain campaign and congressional leaders have been clamping down on the anti-immigrant wing of the party. You didn't really think these folks suddenly decided they no longer care about this issue, did you?

    What I don't think is a coincidence is the sudden reemergence of immigration in the presidential debate. Suddenly, Obama is blasting McCain on immigration and looking for more and more forums to make his claim that he's pro-immigration and his party's solidly behind him. And he's quick to remind Latinos that John McCain turned his back on them and denounced his own comprehensive immigration reform bill, something that Latino voters are now saying is one their top priorities.

    McCain is asking Latino voters for a do-over and claiming that he was only pandering to his base. He was always pro-immigration. It's just politics, you understand.

    As you might expect, this message is not selling particularly well. And Democrats know it. They also know that with the economy in free fall, most Americans are not thinking that much about immigration anymore and the issue has dropped back to its historically low rank on issues of concern to the typical voter. So Democrats can be more visibly pro-immigration without having to fear negative consequences.

    You probably see where this is going. Provoking a confrontation over immigration with Republicans in the month of October can only have good results. Democrats might actually pass a bill they really want. And they score politically as well.

    There's no time to bring up a massive comprehensive immigration reform bill between now and the election. Something smaller and simpler, but what? Oh wait, there's that recapture bill! And there's that must pass E-Verify bill. Now there's a great way to put immigration back on the front pages. Link the two and force Republicans to vote no on a pro-immigration bill likely to have a hugely positive impact in the Hispanic community if they want the E-Verify program to survive. If the Democrats can keep the two bills linked, Republicans who can't stomach more immigration will have to vote no on E-Verify, something they'll have trouble explaining to their constituents. And Republicans who think E-Verify is too important to die, will help deliver a win on the recapture bill.

    And in the mean time, McCain will have to openly confront the angry antis in his party. Some of the hardliners in his party will call the provisions easing the unlawful presence waivers to be a "back door amnesty." If McCain goes against them, he'll be seen as a liar by the people in his party who he promised that he would not support an "amnesty" without enforcement first. And if he votes with the antis, it will be all the Hispanic community needs to hear to confirm they're right to support Obama.

    October could be interesting.





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  • Jerrome
    09-24 09:53 AM
    I think your analysis considers EB1(ROW)+EB2(ROW) spill over to EB3(ROW) that is not true,

    EB1 Overflow ---> EB2
    EB2 Overflow ---> EB2(I)+EB China

    That means as per your calculation, it would be 19,282 considering 0 EB1 and EB2 filled in 2010.

    As i said in my previous posts EB2 would be May 2006 by end of this year for sure.
    Best case scenario considering more than 30K spill over it would be end of 2006.

    You are also calculating spillover as of today with the pending cases, but the spill over happens only in Last quarter of 2010. There would be some if not more EB1+EB2 ROW applicants.

    Based on following link:

    http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New%20Structure/2nd%20Level%20%28Left%20Nav%20Parents%29/Green%20Card%20-%202nd%20Level/Pending%20Form%20I-485%20Reports.pdf

    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB3-India + Spillover from EB2 and EB1, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".
    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB2-India + spillover from EB1
    28.6%/5 = 5.72% for EB1-India + spillover from EB4 and EB5


    Each category is 28.6% WW Quota.

    WW Quota consists of 5 country specific sub-quotas 1)India 2)China 3) Mexico 4) Philipines 5)ROW.

    Based on page 1, I do math as under for Philippines categories.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 70 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1890
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1890 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11858 - pending 74 = Total
    11784 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11784 =19792, Pending: 510, So total 19282 VISA numbers will be spilled
    over to EB3.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19282 spill over =27290 - 11563 Pending = 15727 VISA extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 264 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15727-264 = 15463 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.


    Based on page 3, I do math as under for ROW categories.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 1378 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 582
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 40 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1920
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 582 + EB5 spillover 1920 = 10510 - pending 2477 = Total
    8033 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8033 =16031, Pending: 7150, So total 8881 VISA numbers will be spilled
    over to EB3.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 8881 spill over =16889. Pending: 62840 -16889 = 45951 applications will
    still be pending and pushed to year 2011.

    Based on page 4, I do math as under for China categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 384 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1576
    2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1947
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1576 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11531 - pending 607 =
    Total 10924 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 10924 =18932, Pending: 19333, So total 401 applications will be pushed to
    year 2011 with pending approval.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + no spillover = 8008 – 6343 Pending = 1665 visas Extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 30 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 1665-30 = 1635 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.

    Based on page 5, I do math as under for India categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota for EB4 -->7% x 140000/5=1960, Pending: 123 Quota to be spilled over to EB1= 1960-123 = 1837
    2) Quota for EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 13 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-13 = 1947
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1837 + EB5 spillover 1947 = 11792 - pending 418 = Total
    11374 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11374 =19382, Pending: 47728, So total 28346 applications will still be
    pending for year 2011.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008, no spill over. Pending: 62607 -8008 = 54599 applications will still be pending
    and pushed to year 2011.

    Based on page 6, I do math as under for Mexico categories.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1) Quota For EB4 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 62 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960-62=1898
    2) Quota For EB5 --> 7% x 140000 / 5 = 1960, Pending: 0 Quota to be spilled over to EB1 = 1960
    3) Quota for EB1 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + EB4 spillover 1898 + EB5 spillover 1960 = 11866 - pending 174 =
    Total 11692 will go to EB2
    4) Quota for EB2 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 11692 =19700, Pending: 211, So total 19489 applications will spill over to
    EB3 category.
    5) Quota for EB3 --> 5.72% x 140000 = 8008 + 19489 spillover = 27497 – 7878 Pending = 19619 visas Extra.
    6) “Other Workers” – Pending: 8415 TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 19619-8415 = 11204 UNUSED VISAS will go to the quota
    of other countries.


    TOTAL UNUSED VISAS = 15463 + 1635 + 11204 = 28302.

    Assuming these unused visas from Philippines, China and Mexico will be used for India, ROW equally India will benefit additional 14151 VISAS this year. Assuming all of these go to EB2 India Pushed down figure for EB2-India for the year 2011 will be 28346 – 14151 = 14195 pending EB2-I applications ready to go to year 2011.





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  • neoklaus
    02-13 03:05 PM
    Are you suggesting that IV's efforts would increase the wait times for ROW?
    What incentive does ROW have to work with IV then?

    Generally speakin' we are all "Rest of the World".

    Let's not just be theoretic. Our positive thinking and movement together will help resolve the issues.

    Even that I'm here since 2000 & my husband 1999(H1B-ROW) we will wait and fight together with India, China...

    Go, India! Go, China!





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  • krishmunn
    07-27 03:05 PM
    Yes it is 1099-INT. "Amway bosses will not inform you..?..anuthorized?"...why don't you check your own braincells. Nobody is boss of anyone. Every business owner receives a proper TAX form with all declarations every year. Neither Murthy/Khanna/ or any corporate law offices are wrong. You should talk to them explicitly before commenting.
    Your sorry ass has lot of excuses. Don't open your mouth on things you don't know.

    So now you say Amway gives you 1099-INT ? Didn't you earlier say they give a 1099-MISC ?
    BTW, Amway cannot issue you a 1099-INT -- that is for bank interest. Look who do not know things (and still try to open mouth ) :rolleyes:

    Bottomline -- you are NOT allowed to do ANY type of business on H1. If you think I am wrong , just share your name and address and I will be happy to send the info to CIS.
    Your mouthfull of garbage does not change the law



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  • fairman
    08-16 12:26 PM
    .....

    Mamooty.. who is he?
    One Mallu actor ( got national award etc.)





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  • mbahunting
    09-24 04:41 PM
    What are the chances of someone like me with a PD of Nov 06 and who did not file 485 in 07. Will I be able to file 485 anytime soon? I am wondering how many of people like me are waiting - that may impact some of our date calculations based on the 485 numbers released by USCIS? Any insights?



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  • poorslumdog
    09-04 12:23 PM
    These people are Christians ??

    Any figures available like how many Hindus, Muslims die???

    If other caste people are dead, it means it is crazy to die for a Christian terrorist !!!!
    according to -TrueFacts and his avatars.

    His postings have only one agenda. He is a religious fanatic. Nothing to do with corruption. PERIOD.

    you must be a educated idiot to think like this. Yesterday 1200 people died in heart attack in India and more than 15000 across the world. You mean all are because of YSR. Use your pea nut size brain man.





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  • we_can
    09-24 10:16 AM
    Innovative idea, cool. Sent mails to most people in the list. Just one bounced, others went fine.



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  • sachug22
    09-24 06:40 PM
    If you see the number of application pending in EB2 ROW for 2007 and 2008 they are huge compared to previous years somewhere in hundereds which can mean having the above said issues. The number of applications related to the above mentioned issues cannot spike significantly in just 2007 and 2008. Either the data is old and can mean that these applications are processed and approved and we wait until the new data is posted.

    You can compare this with the PERM data. PERM data has very low EB2 ROW application in a given year and hence has always remained current.

    Is my assumption correct?

    CIS files your application until its time to process. Check the processing dates for Texas and Nebraska service center they are still in second half of 2007. So these applications are filled and waiting for the processing dates to move forward.

    I am not sure if any of your application was delayed due to CIS processing delays, but if they have limited resources they have to go sequentially in order of receipt date (and at time simple approvals AP/EAD could take 4-6 months).





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  • praveenuppaluri
    09-03 11:27 AM
    I am not a congress supporter and I am definitely not a YSR fan. He was a very powerful man in AP and look at the way he died.. horrible death. it sure is very sad that 5 people died that way. may their souls rest in peace.



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  • BharatPremi
    12-14 05:38 PM
    [QUOTE=at0474;206395


    --What if 10% a year from one country continues for few years...
    [/QUOTE]

    What if only few countries ONLY can supply the required skilled labor sufficiently and no other countries can?





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  • gjoe
    02-15 12:07 PM
    Its just that you chose not to leave. The correct description of the situation is - you are imposing slavery upon yourself and asking for remedy from the government. Isn't that correct? Jazzy is simply saying that you can leave if you don't like it. So you are not a slave. Its that simple.
    .

    A person can kill himself to solve all his problems. But that is not the point. If I have come here to work and you have things setup in a way that it can be used to exploit you ( e.g. employer holding back your pay for no valid reason) that amounts to indirectly supporting slave business. The word "slave" doesn't make high tech workers comfortable because they don't want to be categorized as such. But the trouble they are going through is similar to that of the slaves that were taken by the brits in olden days for working at different places in their colonies. If you look at the way most of us work here, it is almost same. Someone (called ur employer) brings you here, he puts you in a place to work reporting to a differnet master sometime many. This exactly how slave trade was working in olden days, but today instead of us working in plantations or laying highways we are working on the building the IT super highway.


    I rest my case here for now



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  • HumJumboHathuJumbo
    09-23 04:28 PM
    the day this becomes law..it would be better for all of us go home, bcos tht means lawmakers are ready to do anything to get some money and they know this country has gone down beyond repair.
    and the day it becomes law..i am sure the situation in this country will be so bad tht most of us wont even have jobs at tht time.

    very true! Its like you get a job as a driver in a middle class house in india and suddenly your master loses his job and is ready to lay you off. If you realize the fundamentals, you will find a job somewhere else. If you start begging your master to let you clean the dishes so you can still stay, then you got problems.

    In this day and age, everyone should know when to cut their losses.





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  • ArkBird
    03-30 02:17 AM
    Agreed but consider the other options. Lalu? Mulayam?? Mayawati???

    I will have tears of joy in my eyes if BJP get the majority but I know it will never happen... :(

    Snathan,Arkbird

    Please do understand MMS brought economic reforms when he was finance minister in P.V Narasimha Rao's govt.People thought country would see the same in 2004 when MMS was made PM. But Sonia Gandhi didn't give him that freedom.We didn't see any reforms in these 5 years.

    Opting for MMS is like saying I won't take Sonia/Rahul but would take them if they came with a wrapper called MMS. That's what MMS is.

    All those voting for MMS in the poll might as well vote for Rahul if you are bent on only congress party for communal/other reasons of your own.

    MMS is not even fighting these elections.As per congress party sources Sonia doesn't want to announce Rahul as PM candidate because if congress loses then Rahul has to take the blaim(which will affect his charisma..huh our leaders run not qualifications but charisma and even urban/rural people fall for that).If congress wins MMS will be replaced with Rahul citing health or some other issue within no time.
    I can understand rural masses but educated skilled people falling for the tactics of unskilled Sonia is something.No wonder she is going great.



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  • breddy2000
    09-03 11:40 PM
    dealsnet,

    You picking on CHANDUV23 is unwarranted. You lack debating skills. Do you have a argument to make against "unprecedented political killings, govt and personal land grabbing, corruption, and opportunistic politics of YSR" ?

    Wow supporting to your own alias comments... And on top of it creating multiple IDs to increase your reputation.

    Is this not how you break the system????....This is called Corruption my friend....

    I can't help myself Laugh the hell out your stupid behavior ....LOL





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  • ronhira
    01-13 04:38 PM
    So i was right GCPerm was kicked out of this forum for being EB3 ................

    Tell me something Ron . In you opinion what would freak out all the guys more and again
    - If I am GCPerm
    - If I am NOT GCPerm

    Let me know which so that i will agree to be the opposite and then hopefully the guys will calm down or not freak out more. A whole day with the guys here on IV and i am feeling like i took care of 20 bawling, crying children for the complete time. I am not sure i can do that for another day.

    Just between you and me I am not GCPerm but shhhhhhhhh don't tell anyone anything or it might lead to another round of slugfest.

    i'll not tell anyone that u'r gcperm.... ok?

    btw, no one is freaked out knowing that u'r gcperm..... i guess no one cares for u....



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  • mmk123
    09-04 11:46 PM
    May YSR's soul rest in peace. I am not YSR fan but he is no more... So what good, what bad?

    Pls, it is cheap to reveal anyone's identity, posting personal details, and this kind of behavior on these posts. Pls stop bickering... In the free country like US, be tolerant enough to listen to others even though you don't agree with a person.

    IV core, pls delete this thread, it's disgusting and embarrassing.





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  • neverbefore
    09-23 12:02 PM
    Applause!





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  • ezee
    08-16 01:49 AM
    What use is this thread? How does it serve the purpose of IV. I see emotions flaring up time and again with every "incident" that media sensationalizes. Its high time administrators here took control of our messaging otherwise anti-immigrants are soon going to pounce on this. I sense an under-current of hatred in some posts as well. I am going to stop coming here if this mindless stuff does not get stopped from being posted. Personally I don't even think that forum should be on the home page.





    cps060
    03-19 05:43 PM
    so you mean to say that if I try to enter in fourth year, then itself I have to go to an immigration hearing and the judge would decide whether he would let me stay or not ?

    Also can I apply for CA SIN staying in USA ?
    Should I be filing taxes there ?
    How do I get an address if I dont stay there ?

    Thanks for your help.





    OLDMONK
    07-24 05:41 PM
    Agree with few points in your argument though overall it went little overboard. Whisky Line??? Are you implying there are no lines in US? Ever heard about GC Line???????:))))))I havent waited for 5 to 7 yrs in India for anything and not got it. Maximum I waited would be Tirupati temple for 12-14 hrs:)

    I am only implying convenience is a big factor in deciding your future and your children future and where would you like to concentrate your energy/passion for the rest of your life.

    I wouldnt mind waiting in Tirupathi line or waiting in line at Jai Mata di temple, for that the choice is mine. I am talking about lines which I have to get to or have my bahadur/driver/employee if I am in business do it for me.

    Of course it sounds overboard but you wont believe the kind of lines (specially the close times) where state government dispenses alcohol. (new delhi is one of those).

    BTW I forgot the Movie Ticket Window line (also the black line by the cycle stand LOL). I am sure I forgot a lot of other lines. The Key is Convenience for me.

    Anyway don't take it too literally but I will give you a real example. I could never pay my electric bill for a commerical place even if I wanted to. There is a middle man. If you don't go through these middle men they will hassle you every month. Will come up with something so they can threaten you with a disconnection. Now at a business place and specially in service oriented business you cant fight them. For house electric bills thats not case though.

    Same for sales tax guys, excise tax guys, ca's and lawyers. To get my IT clearance even after having every paperwork, commissioner (IAS) tip was Rs. 1000. forget babus and chaprasis.

    As for your GC comments that is not the right comparision, as we don't require a GC in India. The closest would be Passport line (3 months to 2 years) and you have to bribe the enquiry man no matter what, and which state. HDFC Draft Line, Visa Line (after 40-100 days wait), Wrong passport picture run get new and go back to line. Not mentioning H1B sponsoring employer line.

    :-) and I am not saying I am 100% right. You may come from a fortunate/honest town/village where there is still honesty and sincerity or Maybe one didn't face it as someone in their family was a bigwig, meaning every one knew (fiction) Anirudh is son of Income Tax Commissioner or Malaika is daughter of H P Dwivedi who is MP from Rohtak, Haryana. so for those guys it was sir, sir, sir all around.

    but when Sachin hits a century or sets a world record.. Mera Bharat Mahaan. (India is great) Right? Sanya anyone? Right?



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