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  • sachug22
    06-11 09:22 AM
    I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html

    I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model

    Making following assumption

    15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
    12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
    EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)


    EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
    Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
    Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
    Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
    Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
    Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
    Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
    Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
    Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
    Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007





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  • krishnam70
    07-11 07:11 PM
    Eom





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  • Legal
    07-24 07:10 PM
    Have some more comments from Atty Ron. Might be interesting to discuss if already not brought up.

    "Some thoughts on India E2 movement over the next two months.
    More and more, I see people posting messages containing the unspoken assumption that since the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward, it is likely to move forward further in the coming months. This is a false hope.

    Even with a cutoff date in early 2003, the CIS has sufficient inventory of Indian E2 adjustments on file to use up the remaining inventory of E2 visas for this fiscal year. The reason that the Visa Office advanced the priority date is to move it up to the point where overseas consular posts can take up the slack left by the CIS's inability to close out enough cases and avoid wasting visas this year.

    The CIS inventory of pending cases is massive. If there were no quota at all - if everyone were suddenly "current" - and no new cases were filed after today, it would still take the CIS four to five years to close out all of the pending cases that they already have in their inventory.

    Overseas consular posts maintain inventories of cases as well. When the priority date for a particular case starts to edge forward and it appears that the applicant may become "current' in the not too distant future, the applicant is told to submit all required supporting documents to the post or the NVC. When this is done, the applicant is reported to the Visa Office as being "documentarily qualified." This means that the case is in a position where an immigrant visa can be issued to the applicant as soon as a visa number becomes available.

    The inventory of documentarily qualified cases with current priority dates at a consular post never exceeds that post's ability to process all such cases within sixty days. Consular posts have very high bandwidth processing capabilities. No matter how many cases become current, they are able to process all of them within sixty days.

    The reason that the Indian E2 cutoff date has moved forward is that the Visa Office fears that the CIS will not be able to adjudicate enough adjustment of status applications to exhaust the annual quota. They have advanced the cutoff date in order to make more cases overseas eligible for final processing.

    This means that overseas consular posts have exhausted their inventories of Indian E2 cases with priority dates earlier than 2006 and the Visa Office had to move the cutoff date forward in order to make more cases eligible to be closed out.

    This does not mean that the CIS has closed out all of the pre-2006 cases pending in their inventory. Far from it. When the new fiscal year starts, Indian E2 is likely to retrogress back to late 2002 or early 2003. This is roughly the point reached by the CIS in processing their inventory of pending cases.

    Please understand that this is a temporary phenomenon and due entirely to the difference in the processing capabilities of the CIS and the overseas consular posts.

    I hope this clarifies matters."


    I am curious and have a few questions:

    1. What was Ron Gotcher's prediction (if any) BEFORE the Aug bulletin came out??

    2. In his long post above, he elaborates on one single theme- to avoid wastage of visa numbers, and since there are some CP cases which could be adjudicated faster, USCIS moved the dates. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING NEW HERE, everyone knows this. He is entirely silent on (a) the ACTUAL number of EB visas available for this fiscal year, (b) spillover from unused FB quota

    3. He is entirely silent on vertical spill over policy changing to horizontal spill over policy. Even without spillover, some minimum numbers will be available in October for EB2-I from the new fiscal year's quota.

    4. He is not giving any credible explanation on why the dates will move back to 2002-3 despite declaring there is a massive inventory? What are the numbers he has on this massive inventory? If there is such a massive inventory of pending EB-2 cases, and every one knows this, no one will be speculating like this.





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  • GCkiTaisi
    05-01 05:42 PM
    I am an Indian Tamil and firmly believe that both LTTE and Lankan Army are at fault here. LTTE's tactics have always been to use human cover and the Lankans are guilty of using heavy artillery on civilians. In fact not all the civilians are innocent, some of them are LTTE proponents who prefer to stick with them till their last breath to further promote what is called as Lankan atrocities to the world.

    I totally support the Tamil Ealam cause, but the method LTTE has taken would have never gotten them there at the first place. As a country, India should have been a bit more proactive and involved than just supplying arms to the Lankans (which was anyways done to prevent the Lankans from going to the Pakistan or China). So the Indians are just watching the tamasha -- and it is really unfortunate.

    How does it bother the Tamilians of India? They are crossed between supporting for Tamil Ealam, death of innocent Tamilians and assassination of Rajiv Gandhi and this leads to mixed feelings. Ideally I would want to see Prabhakaran hanged and Srilankan Tamilians meeting their 3 decade old goals.



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  • gg_ny
    02-13 08:03 AM
    im willing to pay 1000's of dollars in lawyer's fees..

    this im intersted in more than sending letters.

    pls explore class action suit.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/11/AR2008021103132.html





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  • Legal
    07-21 05:30 PM
    Unused Family Based VSAS are 32k in 2007!!!!
    For 2007 we had an availability of 226,000 Family Based Visas. But the issued visas in 2007 in Family Based are 194,900 visas. That means there are 226,000 MINUS 194,900 = 31100. These 31,100
    unused Family Based Visas have been made available for 2008 Employment Based Visas of 140,000. And USCIS has 28,795 unused VISAS of American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act of 2000 (AC21).

    That seems to be correct interpretation. This makes me dizzy, too good to be true. :D

    The Family visas spill over is something I couldnt understand. They are retrogressed by > 10 years for many categories. Is that conflicting with spill over? Why would there be spill over with such backlog?

    That's because of per country quotas. There may be millions waiting for 15 years under the brothers and sisters category, but once they hit the country limit they are done. The unused numbers may go to brothers and sisters of petitioners from non-backlogged countries. If not, these numbers will flow to EB.



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  • Keeme
    05-01 05:29 PM
    "Tomorrow if we or our generations are getting killed in the US, would you say the same thing" ....

    Of course yes! If our generations are US citizens, US govt should take care of them and if they are part of any terrorist organisation, they should be treated the way terrorists are treated.

    "Country needs to care about its people" ... Its is in your quote ... Issue is about Srilankan's and their goverment should take care of it, NOT India. I don't think any one has a doubt about how LTTE should be handled.

    Agreed but some Govt. fails to do so. IF Govt. were acting resposibly , World wouldn't have seen the WW1 and WW2 and Bosnia-Serbia crisis and countless other masscare !

    One should understand difference b/w ' Srilankan Tamils' and 'LTTE'.





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  • nixstor
    07-03 09:22 PM
    Will it be possible to get emergency legislation to capture unused EB numbers for the past several years????

    Is it possible to escape the radars of the likes of Durbin & Sanders?

    No, it will not be possible to escape the radars of Durbin, Grassley or Sanders. The key is to get support from people like Kennedy. I know it is very difficult because kennedy is very pissed off with the failure of CIR. Kennedy will only consider this, if this really becomes a full blown issue beyond a certain magnitude. Then we have people like Hagel, Lieberman, Cornyn, cantwell who supported bigger amendments than this. It is a matter of making this a bigger/biggest issue related with USCIS and immigration.



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  • acecupid
    08-15 09:27 AM
    Try detaining any of their top Hollywood Heroes at an Indian airport for 2 hours and see how USA media and people will react to it.

    You people have no respect for your own motherland and always think everything American is good than your own country. Learn to stand up for your motherland. Just because you want your greencard does not mean you forget your roots. Anti-Immigrants (read racists) of this country will still call you slumdogs even if you are a citizen of this country. But your own country people will never forget you and will accept you as their own even if you have lived here for 50 years.

    Learn to love your motherland.

    I completely agree with you that we should never forget our roots or our motherland. India is far better than US when it comes to family values and many other things. However, this story has nothing to do about standing up for our own country/motherland. Every person who has a common name with terrorist names has had troubles at POE since 9/11. So who cares if he is SRK or anyone for that matter. When Colin Powell was the chief of security under Bush administration he had to go through airport security just like any other common person. The TSA here in US treats everyone the same. Do you think ministers or celebrities in India follow any security procedures ? Every now and then you hear of ministers and celebrities involved in smuggling scandals.
    There are good and bad things about every nation. IMHO, security procedures in US are the far better than India and apply the same way to everyone unlike in India. If you are so concerned about standing up for your motherland, what are you doing in the US ? Should I be calling you a traitor ? My point is, this case of SRK has nothing to do with loyality to motherland or racism. It is an unfortunate aftermath of 9/11 and we all know its been happening at POE.





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  • Legal
    07-25 02:08 PM
    A question about the FB spillover: according to your data, there are about 30000 FB visa spillover from last year. But does USCIS have to use up all of them? If the answer is yes, then the September VB will very likely be current. If the USCIS only need to use up the 147000 EB and use whatever portion of the FB spillover, then September VB may not move.


    They can waste numbers and come up with excuses. But because of criticism from Ombudsman, Congress, etc it looks like they are trying to shape up. They can adjudicate 30 k petitions are more in 2 months if they are committed to. We could get an idea, if there is a deluge of approvals in the first half of August.



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  • reachinus
    07-30 04:04 PM
    Hello Atty, Hope you can reply to my question as well. Please let me know if I should contact the CBP and tell them about this or just ignore.

    Thanks for your time in advance.



    I am not saying that the AP cannot be used again, but it cannot be used after the Validity on the AP which is 1 year from the Issue date and the date on the I-94 doesn't have any meaning.

    For example
    My AP was issued on Oct 18th 2007 and I can use it to travel till Oct 17th 2008. But people are saying that they are issued an I-94 with a date which is 1 year from the date they enter/use the AP.

    But my concern is that I was issued an I-94A which doesn't have any date on it. Should I be concerned about that?





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  • bestofall
    05-29 03:37 PM
    http://www.complaintsboard.com/complaints/cognizant-technology-solutions-private-limited-c17075.html
    i agree. to add the worst, if anyone jump to cognizant from other big companies like wipro, infy etc they designate you in management level may be 5 years + exp after graduation who is unfit for management lack of very basic communication skills, half knowledged tech skill etc etc etc. Moreover people jump to cognizant for onsite to USA and eventually settle in USA. For the reason being cognizant bring the people on L visa and do EB1C quick green card processing for management. while they file perm they fabricate the responsiblities to suit the EB1c requirement.
    At the same time the person who stayed longer and longer with cognizant won't get promoted that easily to management.

    one more thing i like to add here, cognizant makes the world feel it is a american company but the truth Cognizant technologies is 100% indian (desi) company like other companies like infy, wipro, tcs.

    23 days ago by cts 0 Votes
    how do we bring this to uscis attention about L1A fraud and cognizent employees applying in eb1 catagory by producing fake doc...



    Can not agree more.

    We get engaged in all kinds of discussions EB1 Vs EB2, EB-I Vs EB ROW. bulletin predictions...But we all skilled immigrants can not figure out how to unite and resolve the big issue of backlog. When one person suggests any initiative( flower campaign, call campaign, letter campaign etc.) more 20 people hammer him or her and spend their full energy in proving how suggested idea will not work. Next time the guy does not even think about suggesting anything. On top of that some will come up with their line" Have you contributed, If not then do that first".Our lack of unity will keep us here for a long time to come. In coming months and years, some people will lose interest, stop visiting this site and move on. Others will come to see if there is any POSITIVE news and some will still keep fighting over the issues of EB1 vs EB2 vs India vs China Vs ROW.

    Good Luck



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  • GCVictim
    08-24 11:48 PM
    Dear Immigration Attorney,

    Can I out of US with old AP and returned with new (renewed) AP?





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  • krishmunn
    07-27 03:05 PM
    Yes it is 1099-INT. "Amway bosses will not inform you..?..anuthorized?"...why don't you check your own braincells. Nobody is boss of anyone. Every business owner receives a proper TAX form with all declarations every year. Neither Murthy/Khanna/ or any corporate law offices are wrong. You should talk to them explicitly before commenting.
    Your sorry ass has lot of excuses. Don't open your mouth on things you don't know.

    So now you say Amway gives you 1099-INT ? Didn't you earlier say they give a 1099-MISC ?
    BTW, Amway cannot issue you a 1099-INT -- that is for bank interest. Look who do not know things (and still try to open mouth ) :rolleyes:

    Bottomline -- you are NOT allowed to do ANY type of business on H1. If you think I am wrong , just share your name and address and I will be happy to send the info to CIS.
    Your mouthfull of garbage does not change the law



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  • ramus
    07-03 11:01 PM
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/04/us/04visas.html





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  • dvb123
    02-15 10:56 AM
    I think recapture of visas is not exactly possible but the court can order to clear the backlog before issuing visa numbers to other applicants depending on previous court precedents.



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  • ocpmachine
    09-17 11:21 AM
    When it took about 2 years spill over visas (2008 and 2009) for the EB2 India dates to move from April 2004 to Jan 2005, I am sure you could estimate how long it would take to cross a year.

    This is not entirely true, the spillovers in 2008 was given to PD's till mid 2006 and cases with FBI namecheck pending(PD's 2003/4/5) were not approved, so 2008 spillovers did not go fully to 2003/4/5 PD cases. However, in 2009 the spill overs go entirely to 2004 cases as FBI cleared name checks and due to pre-adjudication.

    So my take is it took part of 2008 spillovers + entire 2009 spillover numbers just to clear 2004 backlog, unless we have pre-perm Jan-Mar05 numbers we really cant logically predict the EB2 movement.

    Edit: oops, i see sachug22 already posted a similar reply, sorry for the duplicate post.





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  • sachug22
    09-15 03:16 PM
    you are correct India will get only 50% of sipill over numbers and we need to take into account how many China applications are pending (perhaps there are more China apps than India in EB2)

    There are 2.5 EB2-I application per EB2-C application. And EB2 China had cutoff dates of early 2005 in 2009 (they did not enjoy too much spillover in 2009). So my guess it that China will use its 3k annual limit + spillover numbers (depending on how much EB2-C dates move). The spillover would be split 25% china and 75% India.





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  • the_googly
    07-29 09:33 AM
    I expect 1/2 of the approvals to be EB2-I and the rest EB2-C.





    rkg000
    09-04 08:14 AM
    True_facts, you cannot denigrate dead people. I know you are coward, because you cant say what you can say with your own ID. Go to every village in AP, people are better off now than 5 years ago,that's YSR's legacy. YSR improved irrigation, infrastructure across state and percapita income in state.

    Corruption, particularly in India, is like a software, which only gets better with every release. YSR took the corruption to a level unknown till now, I bet he'd put lalloo to shame. What development are you talking about. Don't you hear increase in inflation, or farmers suicide or land grabbing. If you haven't visited Hyderabad recently, you better do it soon, else by the time you visit next time you won't see hussain saagar, but a few multiplxes or luxury homes instead. I'm sure in the next release (read CB Naidu becoming CM), he might take it to a whole new level.





    diqingshen
    07-04 12:40 PM
    Can we also contact compete america for their actions? Their members companies must have suffered a lot as well.



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